Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

DERIVING THE NONLINEAR RISK-BENEFIT ALGORITHM FOR RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: The Nonlinear Risk-Benefit (NRB) Algorithm includes risk as one of the objectives in a multiple-objective optimization problem. The NRB Algorithm is derived by extending the Surrogate Worth Trade-Off method to quadratic programming. This category of problem is common in water resources planning and design, especially multipurpose reservoir systems. Consequently, an example is given using the algorithm for optimally operating a multipurpose reservoir.     

The Ethics of Constrained Choice: How the Industrialization of Agriculture Impacts Farming and Farmer Behavior

The industrialization of agriculture not only alters the ways in which agricultural production occurs, but it also impacts the decisions farmers make in important ways. First, constraints created by the economic environment of farming limit what options a farmer has available to him. Second, because of the industrialization of agriculture and the resulting economic pressures it creates for farmers, the fact that decisions are constrained creates new ethical challenges for farmers. Having fewer options when faced with severe economic pressures is a very different situation for farmers than having many options available. We discuss the implications of constrained choice and show that it increases the likelihood that farmers will consider unethical behavior.     

基于STPA的城市埋地燃气管道第三方破坏风险因素分析

城市埋地燃气管道输送介质易燃易爆、埋设环境人口密集、施工频繁,极易受到来自第三方的破坏,直接威胁人们的生命财产安全,因此对第三方破坏的风险因素分析和防治十分必要。系统理论过程分析法(STPA)是一种基于系统理论的风险分析方法,该方法不同于传统的风险分析方法——将事故视为由初始事件诱发的一系列事件造成的后果,而是对燃气系统从设计、开发和运行过程进行分析,建立系统安全控制结构,通过分析控制缺陷和缺陷致因实现对风险因素的分析。研究分析出24个燃气管道第三方破坏的风险因素,针对风险因素提出了建议,为燃气管道第三方破坏的风险控制提供依据。     

基于LS-DYNA的墙体抗燃气爆炸能力数值分析

目前国内外有关墙体防爆的研究多是针对恐怖袭击,且建模分析中多采用单向墙体,而对于民宅内燃气爆炸防护的研究很少。本文详细讨论了数值模拟的建模关键技术,在此基础上建立了墙体三维模型,采用具有民宅燃气爆炸特征的荷载曲线,对四边约束墙体的破坏模式、抗爆能力等进行了初步分析,并与单向墙体进行了比较。结果表明,墙体边界约束条件、厚度、砂浆强度、平面尺寸等因素均会对计算结果产生一定影响,其中前两者的影响效果较为显著。以此为基础提出的一些民宅防爆建议,可为结构防爆设计提供参考。     

电力供应系统地震安全性优化控制研究

在深入研究电力供应系统潮流分布特性、发电机出力和成本曲线特性、电力系统地震安全性分析与控制的基础上,将安全约束最优化控制算法运用于电力供应系统地震安全性控制中。通过对算法的网络线性分析模型、发电机出力约束条件、线路潮流约束条件和目标函数的深入研究,得出该算法的实施过程;而后,结合供电系统潮流分析的快速解耦法、安全性分析的灵敏度安全性分析法和本文的安全约束最优化控制算法,编写了相应的Fortran和Matlab计算程序,该程序能在较短的时间内计算出调度控制措施和调度费用;最后,通过一个实际算例的分析与计算,验证了该算法的实用性和优越性。本文工作可为震后供电系统功能快速恢复,减少供电系统经济损失,使系统功能得到最大发挥提供理论分析依据,具有很大的现实意义。     

颗粒煤的多扩散系数瓦斯解吸模型及扩散参数反演研究

为研究颗粒煤瓦斯解吸规律,基于Fick定律建立了颗粒煤的多扩散系数瓦斯解吸 模型,完成了颗粒煤瓦斯解吸模型的数值试验。引入了非负约束最小二乘法反演算法（ NNLS）,通过试验数据反演得出颗粒煤的扩散参数的B谱,从而确定出颗粒煤瓦斯扩散 系数D的准确范围。研究结果表明:颗粒煤瓦斯解吸符合Fick扩散定律,颗粒煤的多扩 散系数瓦斯解吸模型能很好地解决单一扩散系数模型的扩散系数随时间衰减的问题,准 确反映了颗粒煤瓦斯解吸规律,单一扩散系数瓦斯解吸模型只是多扩散系数瓦斯解吸模 型的一个特例;NNLS是一种有效的反演算法,利用NNLS方法可以准确反演出颗粒煤瓦斯 解吸过程中的扩散参数的B谱,通过B谱可方便计算出颗粒煤的瓦斯扩散系数。     

OPTIMIZING NONPOINT SOURCE CONTROLS IN WATER QUALITY REGULATION1

ABSTRACT: A stochastic programming framework is developed to evaluate the economic implications of reliability criteria and multiple effluent controls on nonpoint source pollution. An integrated watershed simulation model is used to generate probability distributions for agricultural effluents in surface and ground water resulting from agricultural practices. Results from the planning model indicate that reliability and multiple effluent constraints significantly increase the cost of nonpoint controls but the effects vary by control alternative. The analysis indicates that an evaluation of multiple water quality objectives can be an important planning tool for designing nonpoint source controls for innovative programs to promote cost-effective water quality regulation.     

太湖湖滨带浮游植物群落特征及指示种筛选

针对太湖湖滨带,均匀布设49个点位,分别于2009年12月、2010年4、8月开展浮游植物及水质监测。结果显示,湖滨带浮游植物群落多样性整体较低,优势种从枯水期到丰水期呈"鱼腥藻-鱼腥藻-微囊藻"的演变趋势;西北部湖区(竺山湖、梅梁湾、西部沿岸)浮游植物密度明显高于东南部湖区(东部沿岸、东太湖、南部沿岸);湖滨带浮游植物群落结构与湖体相似,密度比湖体高1个数量级;RDA排序筛选出在显著水平上解释浮游植物分布的最小变量组合为TN、CODMn、SS、p H、SD,且方差分解指出TN是相对最重要的变量;当物种适合度为50%~100%时,与TN具有较好梯度响应关系的是四尾栅藻及弓型藻,并且这2个种与TN、TP及综合营养状态指数的组合变量也有较好的梯度响应关系,具备指示太湖湖滨带富营养化的可能,但定量指示意义尚待进一步研究。     

神经元网络在安全评价中的应用

利用人工神经元网络进行安全评价可以克服传统的安全评价方法的缺点,提高安全评价方法的精确度和可靠性。笔者在BP神经网络基本原理的基础上,利用机会约束的思想建立了综合安全评价模型;运用反向传播算法和遗传算法对神经元网络进行训练;进而就系统综合安全评价模型进行求解,并对运用神经元网络进行综合安全评价的优点进行了分析。最后,通过对实例进行综合安全评价,得出计算结果,同时也证明将人工神经元网络应用于安全评价的可行性